Regardless of the strategy you use, records are extremely useful for finding out where you can improve. Figuring out the cause of your losses can be strikingly obvious once they're written on paper. I'll explain strategies for both football and horse racing as naturally, they are on at different times of the day and week. For example, if you work full-time Monday-Friday, you're going to miss the majority of the racing in the week, especially in the Winter months.
There's an infinite amount of ways to trade horse racing. Of course, you can trade while the race is in-play or before the race begins, but in-play isn't for the faint hearted. You can easily get stung by unexpected outcomes like a horse falling at a fence or refusing to set off from the stalls. Pre-race is often the safest place to start in horse race trading. Two of the most common approaches to trading pre-race are "swing trading" and "scalping".
Scalping requires lots of small trades to build profit over time. If you're new to trading, this can be really tough to achieve. It takes a lot of mental energy to consistently make lots of small and profitable trades. Swing trading is almost the opposite of scalping and partly why it's a great way for new traders to start. With swing trading , you're going to be backing or laying a horse before the race sets off. As with most horse racing markets, the price will go up and down a number of times before the off.
Swing trading aims to profit out of these big swings, hence the name. Open up a horse racing market on the Betfair Exchange website that is due to start in about 20 minutes. This will give you enough time to observe the market before the majority of the action happens about minutes before the off. We're going to keep things simple for now and monitor the price of one horse. Open up the price chart and see if there is a rough trend. For example, is the price generally coming down overtime or drifting out?
There's no exact science to this and it will become easier to spot in time. If for example, you notice the horse is being heavily backed in, back the horse with a small stake with the expectation of the price dropping further. In the example below, the horse has been backed from odds of around [6. Notice the difference between the chart above and the one below.
The chart above has a much clearer trend than the sideways chart below. It's better to avoid charts like the one below if you plan on swing trading. Remember we are trading, not betting. Once the price begins to stop moving in your favoured direction, it's time to exit the trade. The easiest way to do this is by clicking "Cash Out" on the market page. Betfair will automatically calculate your opposing bet so that you have an even book that will spread any profit or loss between all the possible outcomes.
The trick is to trade out when the trend is finished or when it fails to come to fruition. There's generally a lot more to it than this, but the most important point is to not worry about trading out for a loss. Staying in a trade in the hope that it will come back to you will hurt your bank sooner or later. Football is one of the biggest betting markets in existence. It's especially popular in the UK and is commonly the first sport a lot of people bet on. Like horse racing, there are an infinite amount of ways to trade a football match. In terms of betting, the most popular football markets are match odds.
It's popular because it's so simple.
You're betting on which team will win, or if the match will finish as a draw. The strategy I'll explain below will follow on nicely from any match odds betting experience you've had in the past.
In essence, we're betting on a team to win but will use the cash out feature on Betfair Exchange to guarantee a profit after just one goal. You'll want to pick a game where you know that the home team has a much greater chance of winning, as the market will react much more favourably to the home team when they score a goal. Ideally, the home team should be one that frequently makes early attacks. Let's say there's a home favourite and the score goes The idea behind this is that the favourites will equalise at some point, pushing the price on the away win a lot higher and you'll be able to trade from there; either locking in a profit or going back to a lay the draw trade.
That's all well and good, but if time ticks by and the score remains you'll have been edging closer to a profit by doing nothing. And if the score were to go - or the favourites pick up a red card - you'd have been in profit by sitting on your hands, whereas with Metaltone you'd be in the red.
My advice is use it now and again, rather than as a standard part of your trading strategy. If the favourites are in good scoring form and the in-play stats show that they're on top, it can be a very effective way of getting out of trouble but be flexible with your trading and take each individual trade on its own merits. Sometimes it's better just to take the smaller loss and live to fight another day. With lay the draw being such a great strategy it became very popular. At one point, almost every Betfair trader was using LTD in one form or another which brought about a big problem. If a greater number of football traders want to lay the draw, the draw price will rise as the money in the markets is sucked up.
Sure, liquidity may increase but there is always a limit — especially in smaller leagues. Once the favourites score, the draw price rises as normal and all of those extra traders now want to back the draw in order to lock in their profit.
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The first few may get matched at 8. More traders are matched at 7. In short, more lay the draw traders means laying at a higher price and backing out again at a lower price. That leads to a smaller profit margin. A loss is not going to get any cheaper and, if laying the draw at a higher price, will in fact get larger. It used to be possible to cover a loss with profitable trades and get back on track quite quickly, but these days it may take up to five games if favourites only get to So, as lay the draw became more popular, traders enjoyed smaller profits and suffered larger losses. Not good!
As Betfair markets evolve, we must make changes to our trading strategies. Betfair markets are always evolving and traders have to move with them — or fail. This is why Kevin and I are forever updating Goal Profits strategies for members and developing new angles. In the Members Area we are able to update or switch out systems which have lost their edge, ensuring that members always have an advantage over everyone else trading on the betting exchanges. When I first starting trading football on Betfair, I thought it was as easy as buying a few profitable systems and then sitting in front of my computer screen to start lining my pockets.
Unfortunately, I quickly realised that's not how it works in the real world and everyone else has too. For example, you see a lot fewer eBooks on sale these days which promise that you can make money on Betfair for just "five minutes work".
Think about it But anyway, back to lay the draw. As profit margins declined from the traditional LTD method, many football traders declared it was all over — that lay the draw was dead. What a load of rubbish! You adjust the way you select matches and the way you trade them. Quitters drive me crazy!
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Yes, absolutely it's still worth trading LTD but you need to get smarter. Apart from the fact that it halves the time needed to trade, splitting matches into the first and second half reduces liability and increases potential profit. The downside there's always one! However, the benefits far outweigh that.
First half lay the draw is tricky, since no team ever has to score before half-time. On the flip-side, the prices are much more favourable so get it right and first half LTD is extremely profitable. In the Manchester United v Arsenal match you can see it was a lot cheaper to lay the half-time draw and, with the half-time score , it was a winner too!